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Trade data

THE Statistics Department is expected to release July’s external trade data on Friday.

Trade surplus is expected to be about RM18bil while exports expanded 40.6% in July, according to the median by a Reuters poll of economists.

Malaysia’s total trade in June hit a new record high of RM270.4bil, up 43.4% on the previous year, as both export and import numbers continued to trend higher.

However, as imports grew faster than exports, the country’s trade surplus shrank 0.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) to RM21.9bil.

Meanwhile, a handful of corporate earnings results are due this week including Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd, Sime Darby Bhd, MISC Bhd, Dialog Group Bhd and Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia Bhd.

Monetary policy meetings

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THE Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) and Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will announce their monetary policy this week.

BSP pointed to a 50 basis points (bps) rate hike. According to a Bloomberg survey, two analysts expect BSP to raise 25 bps while one expects a 50-bps hike to 2.75% and one outlier expects a 25-bps cut to 3%.

UOB Global Economics and Market Research has revised its BSP rate call for a 50-bps hike in the overnight reverse repurchase rate to 3.75%.

ING believes that’s still likely despite the recent disappointing gross domestic product report.

According to a Bloomberg survey, all five economists polled expect a 50-bps hike for the RBNZ Official Cash rate to 3%.

China performance

DATA due from China this week include industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment and medium-term lending facility.

Bloomberg estimates industrial production to grow 4.4% y-o-y in July from 3.9% in June while retail sales to expand 5% y-o-y from 3.1% in June.